For the week ending July 11, 2025.

Overall, markets digested conflicting signals: cooling inflation and low jobless claims on one hand, slower credit growth and heavier oil inventories on the other. The result was a modest risk-off tilt in equities and bonds, while hard assets and the dollar picked up the slack.

U.S. Equity Markets
U.S. stock indexes slipped in narrow fashion as investors weighed cooling inflation against fresh doubts about economic momentum. Large-cap shares fared best, with the broad large-cap core segment down just 0.28 percent, helped by modest strength in technology heavyweights. Mid-caps lagged after disappointing consumer-credit data signaled weaker capital spending appetite, sending the mid-growth sleeve to an 0.84 percent loss. Small-caps held up better than mid-caps but still finished lower, reflecting the market’s preference for balance-sheet strength while high-frequency indicators like the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast stuck at 2.6 percent.

Sector Performance
Energy stocks jumped 2.41 percent as crude prices firmed—the market chose to focus on hotter demand projections in the government’s Short-Term Energy Outlook rather than another outsized inventory build. Materials and industrials eked out gains on the back of a stable manufacturing backdrop, while utilities rose 0.75 percent as investors rotated toward defensive yield after a mixed set of Treasury auctions. Financials slid 1.94 percent; a softer consumer-credit print plus a small uptick in long-bond yields dented the group. Technology names dipped 0.43 percent despite continued bullish speculative positioning in the Nasdaq-100, suggesting some profit-taking after a strong June. Staple and telecom shares lost ground as low-volatility havens fell out of favor once the June federal budget showed a surprise surplus, easing immediate fiscal-risk worries.

Fixed Income
Bond markets weakened. The U.S. Aggregate Bond Index fell 0.43 percent and high-yield lost 0.48 percent after the 30-year auction cleared at 4.889 percent, the highest yield since May, reminding investors that Treasury supply remains heavy even with June’s budget surprise. International corporates sank 1.14 percent as the stronger U.S. dollar increased effective funding costs abroad.

International Equities
European shares finished flat, holding their ground thanks to steady core inflation numbers and a calmer rate outlook. Pacific markets dropped 1.88 percent, pressured by weaker Chinese export data and yen volatility. Latin American equities slid 4.39 percent as falling commodity tax revenues and a firmer dollar sparked profit-taking across the region.

Commodities and Currency
A 0.98 percent gain in broad commodities reflected renewed interest in energy and metals after speculators lifted net gold positions to a twelve-month high and pared oil longs only modestly. Gold advanced 0.65 percent, supported by softer consumer inflation expectations. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.89 percent, driven by the yield advantage that resurfaced once the bond auctions wrapped up.