For the week ending July 25, 2025

Anyone trying to get a clear read on the economy last week was likely left scratching their head, as the data was all over the place. We're seeing a clear split: the industrial and housing sectors are flashing warning signs, while the services and labor markets continue to show surprising resilience. Manufacturing activity officially tipped into contraction territory, and existing home sales took another step back under the weight of high mortgage rates. Yet, at the same time, the services sector posted unexpectedly strong growth, and the job market held firm with another drop in unemployment claims.

Business Activity & Manufacturing The data here was split, with manufacturing showing a downturn while the services sector posted strong, unexpected growth.

• Manufacturing PMI (Jul): Came in at 49.5, well below the forecast of 52.7 and the previous month's 52.9, indicating a contraction in the sector.

• Services PMI (Jul): Surprised to the upside at 55.2, beating the forecast of 53.0 and the prior 52.9.

• Richmond Manufacturing Index (Jul): Plummeted to -20, far worse than the -2 forecast and the previous -8.

• Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jun): Dropped by 9.3%, which, while better than the -10.4% forecast, is a massive reversal from the 16.5% gain in the previous month.

• US Leading Index (MoM) (Jun): Slipped by -0.3%, slightly more than the -0.2% forecast, suggesting future weakness.

Housing Market The housing market continues to feel the pressure of high rates, with sales of existing homes declining and building permits flat, though a small rebound in mortgage applications offered a sliver of positive news.

• Existing Home Sales (Jun): Fell to 3.93M, missing the 4.00M forecast and down from 4.04M previously.

• New Home Sales (Jun): Came in at 627K, slightly below the 649K forecast but a small increase from the prior 623K.

• Building Permits (Jun): Were nearly flat at 1.393M, just shy of the 1.397M forecast.

• MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate: Inched up to 6.84% from 6.82% the week before.

• MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW): Bounced back by 0.8% after a steep -10.0% drop the previous week.

Labor Market The job market showed some surprising resilience, with the number of people filing for unemployment benefits falling more than expected.

• Initial Jobless Claims: Dropped to 217K, comfortably below the 227K that was forecast.

• Continuing Jobless Claims: Edged down to 1,955K, also beating the forecast of 1,960K.

• Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: Fell to 224.50K from 229.50K, indicating a positive trend.

Energy Markets Energy data pointed to solid demand, with crude oil inventories drawing down more than anticipated.

• Crude Oil Inventories: Decreased by -3.169M barrels, more than double the forecasted drawdown of -1.400M barrels.

• API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: Showed a draw of -0.577M barrels, a sharp reversal from the massive 19.100M build in the prior week.

• Natural Gas Storage: Increased by 23B cubic feet, less than the 28B forecast, suggesting tighter supply or stronger demand.