Weekly Economic Summary

For the week ending April 19, 2024

Please see the summary of last week's principal economic indicator outcomes below (grouped by indicator type):

Manufacturing Sector: The manufacturing sector had a challenging period. The Empire State manufacturing survey came in at -14.3, a significant contraction but an improvement from the previous -20.9 figure. However, this was worse than the median forecast of -10. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, on the other hand, showed a robust expansion at 15.5, significantly outperforming expectations of 2.5 and the previous reading of 3.2.

Leading Indicators: The U.S. leading economic indicators declined by -0.30%, which was a more substantial decrease than the -0.10% forecast and down from the previous increment of 0.20%. This suggests a potential slowdown in economic activity in the coming months.

Inventory and Production: Business inventories and industrial production both met their median forecasts with an increase of 0.40%. These numbers remained consistent for industrial production compared to the previous period, while business inventories showed growth from a previous standstill.

Retail Sales: Consumer spending showed resilience, with U.S. retail sales increasing by 0.70%, more than double the forecast of 0.30% but still below the previous 0.90%. Excluding autos, retail sales performed even better, rising by 1.10%, which is significantly higher than both the 0.50% prediction and the 0.60% from the previous period.

Labor Market: The labor market maintained stability with initial jobless claims at 212,000, directly in line with the previous figure and below the median forecast of 215,000. This suggests a steady employment situation.

Housing Market: The housing sector appears to be cooling down. Housing starts declined to 1.32 million, falling short of both the median forecast of 1.48 million and the previous 1.55 million. Building permits also saw a decline to 1.46 million, compared to the forecast of 1.51 million and the previous value of 1.52 million. Existing home sales slightly exceeded expectations at 4.19 million against the forecasted 4.17 million, but this was lower than the previous 4.38 million.