Weekly Economic Summary

For the week ending September 26, 2025

The economy showed some real muscle last week. Second-quarter growth numbers blew past forecasts, and areas like durable goods orders and new home sales posted big, unexpected gains. Inflation is still the elephant in the room, though, as the numbers the Fed watches most closely didn't budge.

Economic Activity

Growth indicators came in much hotter than expected, suggesting the economy had more momentum than previously thought.

  • GDP (QoQ) (Q2): 3.8% vs. 3.3% forecast (Prev: -0.5%)

  • Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Aug): 2.9% vs. -0.3% forecast (Prev: -2.7%)

  • Personal Spending (MoM) (Aug): 0.6% vs. 0.5% forecast (Prev: 0.5%)

  • S&P Global Composite PMI (Sep): 53.6 vs. 54.6 forecast (Prev: 54.6)

  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3): 3.9% vs. 3.3% forecast (Prev: 3.3%)

Inflation

Inflation metrics held firm, showing little sign of cooling and keeping pressure on policymakers.

  • Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Aug): 2.9% vs. 2.9% forecast (Prev: 2.9%)

  • PCE Price index (YoY) (Aug): 2.7% vs. 2.7% forecast (Prev: 2.6%)

  • Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Aug): 0.2% vs. 0.2% forecast (Prev: 0.2%)

  • GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q2): 2.1% vs. 2.0% forecast (Prev: 3.8%)

  • Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Sep): 3.7% vs. 3.9% forecast (Prev: 3.5%)

Housing Market

The housing sector showed a surprising burst of life, particularly in new home sales which blew past expectations.

  • New Home Sales (MoM) (Aug): 20.5% (Prev: -1.8%)

  • Building Permits (Aug): 1.330M vs. 1.312M forecast (Prev: 1.362M)

  • Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Aug): -0.2% (Prev: 2.0%)

Labor Market

The job market continues to show resilience, with claims for unemployment benefits coming in lower than anticipated.

  • Initial Jobless Claims: 218K vs. 233K forecast (Prev: 232K)

  • Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,926K vs. 1,930K forecast (Prev: 1,928K)

Consumer Sentiment

Consumers are feeling a bit more pessimistic, with sentiment and expectations dipping from last month's readings.

  • Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Sep): 55.1 vs. 55.4 forecast (Prev: 58.2)

  • Michigan Consumer Expectations (Sep): 51.7 vs. 51.8 forecast (Prev: 55.9)

Trade & International Accounts

The U.S. trade picture improved, with both the current account and goods trade deficits narrowing more than forecast.

  • Current Account (Q2): -251.3B vs. -259.0B forecast (Prev: -439.8B)

  • Goods Trade Balance (Aug): -85.50B vs. -95.70B forecast (Prev: -103.60B)