For the week ending June 20, 2025

Last week's economic indicators were mixed, with retail sales dropping 0.9%, initial jobless claims steady at 245,000, the Conference Board Leading Economic Index declining slightly by 0.1%, and the Federal Reserve maintaining rates at 4.25%-4.5% while anticipating two rate cuts by year-end.

Manufacturing Surveys
Factory output across the Northeast is still subdued, with both New York and Philadelphia areas operating well below breakeven.

• NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun): plunged to –16.0, far weaker than the –5.9 economists expected and down from –9.2 in May.

• Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun): stayed stuck at –4.0, matching May’s trough and missing the –1.7 consensus.

• Philly Fed Employment Index (Jun): collapsed to –9.8 after a surprisingly robust 16.5 print last month, hinting that hiring in the region has soured sharply.

Retail Sales Metrics

Shoppers pulled back in May, yet spending on core items unexpectedly ticked upward.

• Retail Sales MoM (May): slid –0.9%, worse than the –0.5% forecast and April’s –0.1%.

• Core Retail Sales MoM (May): dipped –0.3% against a +0.2% consensus, reversing April’s flat result.

• Retail Control MoM (May): bucked the trend with a +0.4% gain, topping the +0.3% expectation after a –0.1% April.

Price Indexes
Import and export prices showed broader disinflation, suggesting some relief on the cost front.

• Export Price Index MoM (May): tumbled –0.9% versus a –0.1% forecast, a sharp contrast to April’s +0.1%.

• Import Price Index MoM (May): held flat at 0.0%, beating the –0.2% estimate but down from +0.1% in April.

Industrial Production
Factories overall eased back in May, with year‐on‐year growth sputtering and monthly output contracting.

• Industrial Production YoY (May): cooled to +0.6% from April’s +1.43%.

• Industrial Production MoM (May): slipped –0.2%, missing the flat call and reversing April’s +0.1%.

Treasury Auction Results
The bond market soaked up supply with slightly lower yields, signaling steady demand.

• 20-Year Treasury Auction: sold at a 4.942% stop-out, down from the previous 5.104%.

• 5-Year TIPS Auction: fetched 1.650%, edging below the last 1.702% print.

GDPNow Forecast
Atlanta Fed’s near‐term growth gauge ticked down, though still cheering for a mid-3s economy.

• Q2 GDPNow (Jun 18): eased to +3.4%, slipping from early‐week’s 3.5% and just under the 3.5% consensus.

Housing Data
Builders are pulling back, with permits and starts both undershooting expectations.

• Building Permits (May): came in at 1.393 million, shy of the 1.420 million forecast and below April’s 1.422 million.

• Housing Starts (May): totaled 1.256 million, missing the 1.350 million estimate and down from 1.392 million in April.

• Housing Starts MoM (May): plunged –9.8%, erasing April’s +2.7% gain.

Labor Market
Jobless claims are inching lower, though the pace of improvement has slowed.

• Initial Jobless Claims (week ending Jun 14): 245,000, just under the 246,000 forecast and improved from 250,000 last week.

• Continuing Jobless Claims (week ending Jun 7): 1,945,000, modestly below the 1,951,000 prior figure and in line with a 1,940,000 estimate.

Oil Inventory
Crude stocks drew down more significantly than expected, tightening supply at Cushing.

• Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: down 0.995 million barrels, deepening the prior week’s 0.403 million‐barrel draw.

Leading Indicator
The Conference Board’s barometer barely budged, hovering in slight contraction territory.

• US Leading Index MoM (May): edged –0.1%, matching forecasts but still a step up from April’s –1.4%.