Weekly Economic Briefing
Week Ending January 16, 2026
The Big Picture: Rebounding Industrial & Consumer Vigor
Mid-January data reveals a significant rebound in regional industrial sentiment and continued consumer resilience. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index surged to 12.6, far exceeding the -1.6 forecast, suggesting a turnaround in the Mid-Atlantic industrial sector.
Consumer activity remains a primary growth engine, with Retail Sales growing 0.6% MoM. Inflationary pressures appear stable as CPI (YoY) held at 2.7%, while the housing market showed improved turnover with Existing Home Sales rising to 4.35M.
Key Momentum Shifts
- Industrial Breakthrough: The Philadelphia Fed Index's jump to 12.6 marks a decisive end to regional contraction, signaling a renewed expansion in factory activity.
- Labor Scarcity Persistence: Initial Jobless Claims falling to 198k suggests that despite restrictive rates, the labor market remains at maximum capacity with minimal layoff activity.
- Consumption Synergy: Coordinated beats in Retail Sales and New Home Sales demonstrate a robust demand profile that is effectively neutralizing high-rate headwinds.
US Macro Data Analysis
Weekly Data Scorecard
| Indicator | Actual | Vs. Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Growth & Housing EXPANDING | ||
| Retail Sales (MoM) | 0.6% | Beat (vs 0.5%) |
| Philadelphia Fed Index | 12.6 | Beat (vs -1.6) |
| New Home Sales (Oct) | 737K | Beat (vs 716K) |
| Existing Home Sales (Dec) | 4.35M | Beat (vs 4.21M) |
| Labor & Inflation STABLE | ||
| Initial Jobless Claims | 198k | Beat (vs 215k) |
| CPI (YoY) | 2.7% | In-Line (vs 2.7%) |
| PPI (MoM - Nov) | 0.2% | In-Line (vs 0.2%) |
Cycle Analysis: Trend Momentum
This assessment utilizes 3-Year Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) to isolate structural shifts in valuation and macroeconomic conditions. By monitoring these specific leading indicators, we identify regime changes that historically precede shifts in 10-year forward equity returns.
Core Predictive Factors vs. 3-Year EMA
Historical Cycle Comparison
Identifying historical cycle patterns based on current statistical benchmarks...