For the week ending August 15, 2025

Inflation readings were mixed last week. Consumer prices were tame, but producer prices jumped sharply. The labor market stayed firm, retail sales showed steady demand, and factory activity improved. Confidence, however, slipped and inflation expectations moved higher. Oil inventories surprised to the upside.

Inflation
Consumer prices are holding steady, but producer costs surged and may feed through in the months ahead.

• Core CPI (MoM) rose 0.3% in July, matching forecasts and up from 0.2% in June.

• Core CPI (YoY) ticked up to 3.1% from 2.9%, slightly above the 3.0% forecast.

• Headline CPI (YoY) stayed at 2.7%, just under the 2.8% estimate.

• CPI (MoM) rose 0.2%, in line with expectations but slower than June’s 0.3%.

• PPI (MoM) surged 0.9%, far above the 0.2% forecast and up from zero in June. Core PPI also rose 0.9%.

Labor Market
Unemployment claims remain low, pointing to a stable jobs backdrop.

• Initial Jobless Claims came in at 224K, just under expectations (225K) and down from 227K.

• Continuing Claims were 1.953M, nearly unchanged from forecasts (1.960M) and last week (1.968M).

Consumer Spending & Confidence
Spending was steady, but sentiment weakened and inflation fears picked up.

• Core Retail Sales rose 0.3%, matching forecasts but below June’s 0.8%.

• Retail Sales rose 0.5%, short of the 0.6% forecast and down from 0.9%.

• Retail Control, a GDP input, rose 0.5%, a touch above the 0.4% estimate but under June’s 0.8%.

• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment fell to 58.6, missing the 61.9 forecast and down from 61.7.

• Inflation expectations jumped: 1-year rose to 4.9% (from 4.5%), 5-year to 3.9% (from 3.4%).

Industrial & Manufacturing
Output dipped, but forward-looking indicators improved.

• Industrial Production (MoM) slipped -0.1%, weaker than the flat forecast and below June’s 0.4%.

• Industrial Production (YoY) picked up to 1.43% from 0.83%.

• NY Empire State Manufacturing Index surged to 11.9, beating the -1.2 forecast and well above 5.5 prior.

Energy & Commodities
Oil inventories climbed and speculative positions came down.

• API Crude Stocks rose +1.5M, against expectations for a -0.8M draw and after a -4.2M drop last week.

• EIA Crude Inventories rose +3.0M, versus -0.9M expected and -3.0M prior.

• Baker Hughes oil rig count rose to 412 from 411.

• CFTC crude net longs fell to 116.7K from 141.8K.

• CFTC gold longs slipped to 229.5K from 237.1K.