Weekly Economic Summary
For the week ending October 17, 2025
Manufacturing activity was a tale of two cities, with New York posting a surprise rebound while the Philadelphia region saw a sharp contraction. The housing market continues to feel the chill as mortgage demand fell again, though a slight uptick in homebuilder confidence offered a small bright spot. Meanwhile, small business optimism took another hit, suggesting owners remain cautious about the road ahead.
Business & Manufacturing
Factory data was all over the map, with a strong showing in New York contrasting sharply with a significant slowdown in the Philadelphia region, while small business confidence waned.
NFIB Small Business Optimism (Sep): The index dropped to 98.8, falling short of the 100.6 forecast and down from the previous reading of 100.8, signaling growing pessimism among small business owners.
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Oct): Activity in New York bounced back in a big way, with the index jumping to 10.70. This crushed expectations for a negative reading of -1.80 and was a major improvement from September's -8.70.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct): In stark contrast to New York, Philly's manufacturing index collapsed to -12.8. This was a massive miss compared to the forecast of 8.6 and a steep decline from the prior month's 23.2.
Philly Fed New Orders (Oct): One of the few bright spots in the Philly report, the new orders component actually climbed to 18.2 from 12.4, suggesting some future demand despite the current slowdown.
Housing & Mortgage Market
The housing market continues to cool, as a slight dip in mortgage rates wasn't enough to boost loan applications, though homebuilders are feeling a little less pessimistic.
MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate: The average rate eased slightly to 6.42% from 6.43% the week before.
MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW): Demand for mortgages fell again, dropping 1.8%. While better than the 4.7% decline in the prior week, it marks a sustained period of weak activity.
NAHB Housing Market Index (Oct): Homebuilder sentiment saw a modest improvement, with the index rising to 37 from 32, beating the forecast of 33.
Consumer Spending
Retail traffic saw a small pickup during the week.
Redbook (YoY): Year-over-year retail sales growth nudged up to 5.9%, just ahead of the 5.8% seen in the previous week.
Energy
Refinery activity dropped significantly, leading to a large draw on fuel inventories.
EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (WoW): Utilization rates fell by a sharp 6.7%, a major reversal from the 1.0% increase reported last week.
EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks: Inventories of distillate fuels like heating oil and diesel dropped by 4.529 million barrels, a much larger draw than the previous week's 2.018 million barrel decline.
Crude Oil Imports: Imports fell by 1.754 million barrels, contrasting with the prior week's increase of 0.731 million.