For the week ending April 18, 2025

Please see the summary of last week's economic indicator outcomes below (grouped by indicator type):

Consumer Spending & Retail Activity

Retail sales rose sharply in March, suggesting consumer demand remains strong, though some sectors grew more slowly than last month.

• Retail Sales (MoM, Mar): +1.4% vs. +1.3% expected (prior +0.2%)

• Core Retail Sales (ex-autos): +0.5% vs. +0.4% expected (prior +0.7%)

• Retail Control Group (feeds into GDP): +0.4% vs. +0.6% expected (prior +1.3%)

Manufacturing & Industrial Production

Manufacturing activity continues to struggle, with sharp declines in the Philadelphia region and weaker industrial output.

• NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Apr): -8.10 vs. -12.80 expected (prior -20.00)

• Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr): -26.4 vs. +2.2 expected (prior +12.5)

• Philly Fed Employment (Apr): 0.2 vs. 19.7 prior

• Industrial Production (MoM, Mar): -0.3% vs. -0.2% expected (prior +0.8%)

• Industrial Production (YoY): +1.34% vs. +1.45% prior

Housing & Construction

Housing starts fell sharply in March, though permits held steady, pointing to slower construction ahead.

• Building Permits (Mar): 1.482M vs. 1.450M expected (prior 1.459M)

• Housing Starts (Mar): 1.324M vs. 1.420M expected (prior 1.494M)

• Housing Starts MoM: -11.4% (prior +9.8%)

Business & Retail Inventories

Inventory growth slowed in February, showing that businesses may be more cautious about future demand.

• Business Inventories (Feb): +0.2% vs. +0.3% expected (prior +0.3%)

• Retail Inventories ex-Auto (Feb): +0.1% vs. +0.1% expected (prior +0.5%)

Oil, Energy & Commodities

Crude inventories rose more than expected, and bets increased across oil and gold, signaling growing investor optimism in commodities.

• API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: +2.400M vs. -1.680M expected (prior -1.057M)

• EIA Crude Inventories: +0.515M vs. +0.400M expected (prior +2.553M)

• Cushing Inventories: -0.654M vs. +0.681M prior

• Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count: 481 vs. 480 prior

• Baker Hughes Total Rig Count: 585 vs. 583 prior

• CFTC Crude Oil Speculative Positions: 146.4K vs. 139.6K prior

• CFTC Gold Speculative Positions: 202.2K vs. 200.7K prior

Inflation & Price Expectations

Consumers expect inflation to move higher, but actual import and export prices remained flat or slightly negative in March.

• Consumer Inflation Expectations (Mar): 3.6% vs. 3.1% prior

• Export Price Index (MoM, Mar): 0.0% vs. +0.1% expected (prior +0.5%)

• Import Price Index (MoM, Mar): -0.1% vs. +0.1% expected (prior +0.2%)

Employment & Jobless Claims

Initial claims declined last week, showing labor market strength, though ongoing claims rose slightly.

• Initial Jobless Claims: 215K vs. 225K expected (prior 224K)

• Continuing Jobless Claims: 1.885M vs. 1.870M expected (prior 1.844M)

GDP Growth Forecasts

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast held steady, continuing to show expected contraction for the first quarter.

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1): -2.2% (unchanged from prior)

Treasury Auctions & Foreign Investment

Foreign investment in U.S. assets surged in February, while bond auctions saw higher yields, suggesting some shift in market demand.

• 20-Year Bond Auction Yield: 4.810% vs. 4.632% prior

• 5-Year TIPS Auction Yield: 1.702% vs. 2.121% prior

• TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Feb): +$112.0B vs. +$35.2B expected (prior -$42.2B)

Speculative Positioning in Equity Indexes

Traders increased bullish positions in the Nasdaq 100 while boosting bearish bets on the S&P 500.

• CFTC Nasdaq 100 Net Positions: 31.8K vs. 24.3K prior

• CFTC S&P 500 Net Positions: -63.1K vs. -28.7K prior

In a Nutshell

Retail sales were solid, proving consumers are still spending. Manufacturing and housing took a hit, with sharp drops in factory activity and new home construction. Inflation expectations crept higher, though actual import and export prices stayed flat. The job market remains stable, with fewer people filing for unemployment. Crude oil inventories rose, and traders continued to bet on rising oil and gold prices. Finally, GDP growth for the first quarter is still expected to shrink, while foreign investors showed strong interest in U.S. assets.