For the week ending November 7, 2025

Last week's economic releases offered a split picture: services kept expanding at a solid clip, manufacturing lagged in contraction, private job gains bounced back, but consumer confidence cratered amid stickier inflation worries and unexpected oil builds.

Growth models still point to a strong Q4, yet the whole readout feels muted against the longest government shutdown ever, now past 40 days since October 1—it's delayed the October jobs report for a second straight month, left roughly 1.4 million federal workers unpaid (hitting their spending hard), strained SNAP and WIC in spots where states can't fully cover, caused flight cancellations from TSA/FAA shortages, and is slamming GDP with estimates of $7-14 billion lost already from the first month alone, plus maybe $15 billion a week ongoing.

PMI Indicators
Services powered ahead with big beats while manufacturing sent conflicting signals, staying weak overall on the ISM side.

• ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI climbed to 52.4, well above the 50.7 expected and a solid jump from 50.0 prior.

• S&P Global Services PMI came in at 54.8, just shy of 55.2 forecast but up from 54.2 last month.

• Composite PMI hit 54.6, close to the 54.8 call and better than 53.9 previous.

• ISM Manufacturing PMI disappointed at 48.7, missing 49.4 forecast and slipping from 49.1—still contracting.

• S&P Global Manufacturing PMI edged up to 52.5, beating 52.2 expected and holding steady from prior 52.2.

Employment Indicators
ADP private payrolls rebounded nicely, but PMI employment gauges remain in contraction, and the official nonfarm report got shelved again by the shutdown.

• ADP Nonfarm Employment Change showed +42K jobs, topping the 32K forecast and flipping from -29K previous.

• ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment rose to 48.2, better than 47.6 expected and up from 47.2—yet below 50.

• ISM Manufacturing Employment improved to 46.0 from 45.3 prior, no forecast given.

Energy Sector
Crude stocks built far more than anyone saw coming, flipping recent draws and hinting at softer demand.

• EIA Crude Oil Inventories rose +5.202M barrels, against expectations for a -2.5M draw and after -6.858M prior.

• API weekly estimate earlier showed +6.5M, missing -2.4M forecast badly.

• Cushing added +0.3M, following +1.334M previous.

• Baker Hughes U.S. oil rigs held at 414, matching prior and just above 413 expected.

• Total rigs ticked up to 548 from 546.

Consumer Sentiment and Credit
Confidence plunged worse than feared, with expectations hitting lows that scream shutdown fatigue and broader unease, though credit borrowing surged.

• Michigan Consumer Sentiment prelim for November fell to 50.3, missing 53.0 forecast and down from 53.6.

• Consumer Expectations dropped to 49.0, below 50.3 expected and matching prior.

• Consumer Credit for September jumped +13.09B, crushing 10.4B forecast and way up from 3.13B previous.

Inflation Expectations
Services prices heated up more than thought, short-term consumer fears rose a bit, but longer views eased.

• ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices spiked to 70.0, over 68.0 expected and higher than 69.4 prior.

• ISM Manufacturing Prices cooled to 58.0, under 62.4 forecast and down from 61.9.

• Michigan 1-year inflation expectations ticked to 4.7%, above 4.6 forecast and prior.

• Michigan 5-year came in lower at 3.6%, beating 3.8 expected and down from 3.9.

• Separate consumer inflation expectations for October eased to 3.2% from 3.4% prior.

Growth and Fed Updates
GDP tracking stayed rock-steady at a healthy clip, while the balance sheet trimmed a touch.

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow for Q4 held firm at 4.0%, matching both forecast and prior update.

• Fed balance sheet shrank to 6,573B from 6,587B previous.