For the week ending May 9, 2025

Please see the summary of last week's economic indicator outcomes below (grouped by indicator type):

Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and Services Activity

Business activity in April slowed, with both PMI and services indicators retreating from March levels, though still showing expansion overall.

• S&P Global Composite PMI: 50.6 (vs. 51.2 forecast, 53.5 prior)

• S&P Global Services PMI: 50.8 (vs. 51.4 forecast, 54.4 prior)

• ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: 51.6 (vs. 50.2 forecast, 50.8 prior)

• ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment: 49.0 (vs. 47.0 forecast, 46.2 prior)

• ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices: 65.1 (vs. 61.2 forecast, 60.9 prior)

Labor and Productivity

Jobless claims eased modestly, while productivity fell and labor costs climbed.

• Initial Jobless Claims: 228K (vs. 231K forecast, 241K prior)

• Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,879K (vs. 1,890K forecast, 1,908K prior)

• Nonfarm Productivity (Q1): -0.8% (vs. -0.4% forecast, 1.7% prior)

• Unit Labor Costs (Q1): 5.7% (vs. 5.3% forecast, 2.0% prior)

Trade Balance

Imports jumped in March while exports were flat, pushing the trade deficit significantly wider.

• Exports: $278.5B (unchanged)

• Imports: $419.0B (vs. $401.1B prior)

• Trade Balance: -$140.5B (vs. -$136.8B forecast, -$123.2B prior)

Credit and Monetary Policy

Consumer credit bounced back, and the Fed held interest rates steady at 4.50%.

• Consumer Credit (Mar): $10.17B (vs. $9.80B forecast, -$0.61B prior)

• Fed Funds Rate: 4.50% (unchanged)

Treasury Auctions

Short- and long-term government borrowing costs held steady with minor yield changes across the curve.

• 3-Year Note Auction: 3.824% (vs. 3.784% prior)

• 10-Year Note Auction: 4.342% (vs. 4.435% prior)

• 30-Year Bond Auction: 4.819% (vs. 4.813% prior)

Energy and Oil Supply

Oil stockpiles fell sharply, and drilling activity declined.

• API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: -4.490M (vs. -2.500M forecast, 3.760M prior)

• Crude Oil Inventories: -2.032M (vs. -1.700M forecast, -2.696M prior)

• Cushing Crude Inventories: -0.740M (vs. 0.682M prior)

• Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count: 474 (vs. 479 prior)

• Baker Hughes Total Rig Count: 578 (vs. 584 prior)

Federal Reserve and Commentary

No policy changes were made.

• Fed Balance Sheet: $6,711B (vs. $6,709B prior)

• FOMC Rate Decision: 4.50%

Market Positioning (CFTC)

Speculative positions were mostly stable, with only slight adjustments across crude, gold, and equity futures.

• Crude Oil: 175.4K (vs. 177.2K prior)

• Gold: 162.5K (vs. 163.3K prior)

• Nasdaq 100: 32.8K (vs. 30.9K prior)

• S&P 500: -76.4K (vs. -78.7K prior)

In a Nutshell

The U.S. economy showed some signs of slowing last week. Business activity in services continued to grow, but not as fast as before. Jobless claims dropped, yet productivity fell and wages jumped. The trade gap widened, the Fed kept interest rates steady, and oil stockpiles fell.

All in all, the data points to steady but cautious momentum.