For the week ending October 17, 2025

Manufacturing activity was a tale of two cities, with New York posting a surprise rebound while the Philadelphia region saw a sharp contraction. The housing market continues to feel the chill as mortgage demand fell again, though a slight uptick in homebuilder confidence offered a small bright spot. Meanwhile, small business optimism took another hit, suggesting owners remain cautious about the road ahead.

Business & Manufacturing

Factory data was all over the map, with a strong showing in New York contrasting sharply with a significant slowdown in the Philadelphia region, while small business confidence waned.

• NFIB Small Business Optimism (Sep): The index dropped to 98.8, falling short of the 100.6 forecast and down from the previous reading of 100.8, signaling growing pessimism among small business owners.

• NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Oct): Activity in New York bounced back in a big way, with the index jumping to 10.70. This crushed expectations for a negative reading of -1.80 and was a major improvement from September's -8.70.

• Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct): In stark contrast to New York, Philly's manufacturing index collapsed to -12.8. This was a massive miss compared to the forecast of 8.6 and a steep decline from the prior month's 23.2.

• Philly Fed New Orders (Oct): One of the few bright spots in the Philly report, the new orders component actually climbed to 18.2 from 12.4, suggesting some future demand despite the current slowdown.

Housing & Mortgage Market

The housing market continues to cool, as a slight dip in mortgage rates wasn't enough to boost loan applications, though homebuilders are feeling a little less pessimistic.

• MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate: The average rate eased slightly to 6.42% from 6.43% the week before.

• MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW): Demand for mortgages fell again, dropping 1.8%. While better than the 4.7% decline in the prior week, it marks a sustained period of weak activity.

• NAHB Housing Market Index (Oct): Homebuilder sentiment saw a modest improvement, with the index rising to 37 from 32, beating the forecast of 33.

Consumer Spending

Retail traffic saw a small pickup during the week.

• Redbook (YoY): Year-over-year retail sales growth nudged up to 5.9%, just ahead of the 5.8% seen in the previous week.

Energy

Refinery activity dropped significantly, leading to a large draw on fuel inventories.

• EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (WoW): Utilization rates fell by a sharp 6.7%, a major reversal from the 1.0% increase reported last week.

• EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks: Inventories of distillate fuels like heating oil and diesel dropped by 4.529 million barrels, a much larger draw than the previous week's 2.018 million barrel decline.

• Crude Oil Imports: Imports fell by 1.754 million barrels, contrasting with the prior week's increase of 0.731 million.